Hidden Competitive Programs in Canada: The 90%+ Backups

Every university list has a backup, or safety school. It's the one your child is sure to get into, so the planning can focus on the reach.

Here's the problem. Families usually judge a backup by the school's name. Admissions decisions are made by program.

And some programs at schools families call safe publish figures that reach 90% or higher. Here are five, drawn only from official numbers, plus one university that shows how far apart programs can sit inside a single school.

Why do safety schools have competitive programs?

Because the average reflects one program's seats and applicants, not the school's reputation.

A program with limited seats and strong demand pushes its average up, wherever it sits. A school can be accessible overall and still have one or two programs that fill with top Scholars.

So the right question isn't "Is this a safe school?" It's "Is this a safe program?"

1. TMU Nursing admission average: 90%+ (estimate)

OUInfo lists Nursing at Toronto Metropolitan University at 90%+ for the 2027-2028 cycle, with an enrolment of 310.

TMU calls its OUInfo averages estimates only. It says actual grade ranges for fall 2027 will be determined as grades become available. In other words, the figure can move.

Here's what else to know:

1. Prerequisites include English, Biology, Chemistry and a senior mathematics course.
2. TMU may use Grade 11 results in its early admission selection.
3. TMU considers all applications received by February 1, 2027.

What does this mean for you? Grade 11 marks can shape an early decision at TMU. For a Scholar in Grade 10 considering nursing, next year's report card may already count.

2. UVic Kinesiology admission average: an estimated minimum of 92%

The University of Victoria lists Kinesiology with an estimated admission average of minimum 92%, based on the required senior courses.

UVic explains that this is an estimate from recent admission cycles. The actual average required may be higher in the future because of increased competition and limited capacity.

There are course minimums too. For BC students, UVic requires at least 73% in English and 70% in Pre-calculus at the senior level, plus two approved senior sciences.

Kinesiology is sometimes treated as a comfortable health-science option. At UVic, the estimated minimum is well above what most families picture for a "backup."

Pro Tip: Don't stop at the program average. Check the course-level minimums too. A Scholar can meet the overall average and still miss a required course grade.

3. UCalgary Neuroscience average: an estimated mid 90s

The University of Calgary lists Neuroscience with an estimated competitive admission average of mid 90s.

If your child is building a list of Alberta options for a future in medicine or research, this program belongs in the reach column, not the safety column.

Not sure which programs on your child's list are really safe? Our Educators help families check each choice against the program's own published figures. Join the program waitlist.

4. Guelph Bio-Medical Science average: 86 to 92%

OUInfo lists Bio-Medical Science at the University of Guelph at 86 to 92% for the 2027-2028 cycle.

A range that wide is easy to misread. Plan for the top of it, not the bottom.

Two details help your planning:

1. If your child isn't admitted to Bio-Medical Science, Guelph automatically considers them for Biological Science.
2. Guelph offers an optional Student Profile Form. If a final average falls within a discretionary range of the cut-off, Guelph may consider the form along with grades.

Pro Tip: Treat Guelph's optional form as required. It only helps when an average is close to the line, and you won't know in advance whether your child will be.

5. UBC Okanagan Nursing average: a 2026 mean of 94

Some BC families treat UBC's Okanagan campus as the safer UBC.

For Nursing, the newest numbers don't support that. UBC's counsellor presentation lists Okanagan Nursing with a mean average of 94 and a minimum average of 85 for the class that entered in 2026. In 2025, the pair was 93 and 78, so the minimum rose seven points in a year. Okanagan Engineering had a 2026 mean of 92 and a minimum of 85.

That Nursing mean sits above several Vancouver programs, including Arts, Applied Biology and Food & Nutrition, all at 92 in 2026. Judge the program, not the campus. See both campuses in full in the post on UBC entering averages for 2026.

6. Queen's: mid-90s to high-70s inside one school

Queen's shows how much a program can differ from its own school.

On Queen's competitive average page, the minimum averages required for consideration for "September of last year" include:

1. Mechatronics + Robotics Engineering: mid-90s
2. Health Sciences: mid-90s
3. Nursing: low-90s
4. Computer Engineering: mid-80s
5. Computing: high-70s

Queen's warns these could be higher than what is published.

Same university, same application cycle, and a gap of roughly ten points between Computer Engineering and Mechatronics. If your child lists "Queen's" as a backup, ask which program.

A list only holds if every program on it has been checked. Apply to our program waitlist and build it with an Educator.

What about programs that don't rank by average?

At least one program has stopped ranking by grades.

The University of Calgary's main-campus Nursing program now uses a lottery. Every high school applicant with the required courses and an average at or above the competitive admission average of 82.0% goes into the draw. A 98 has the same odds as an 83. Read the explainer on the Calgary Nursing lottery to see how the rounds work.

For a backup plan, that matters. A high average can't make a lottery program safe.

How do you build a list that holds?

Here's a simple way to check every program on your child's list.

1. Look up the program, not the school. Find the program's own published figure on the university's site or OUInfo.
2. Read the label. An estimate, a range, a minimum for consideration and a mean all mean different things. Plan to the higher end.
3. Check course minimums. Programs like UVic Kinesiology set floors on specific courses.
4. Check for extra steps. Supplementary forms, profiles and lotteries change how much grades decide.
5. Keep real range. A true backup is a program where your child sits comfortably above the published figure, not at the edge of it.

Pro Tip: Revisit the list every fall. Published figures move during the cycle, and some schools set their ranges only as new grades arrive.

For the programs at the very top of the scale, see the list of the hardest programs to get into in Canada. For health-focused options, see the best health science programs in Canada.

Frequently asked questions

What average do you need for TMU Nursing?

OUInfo lists TMU Nursing at 90%+ for the 2027-2028 cycle, with an enrolment of 310. TMU says its averages are estimates only and actual ranges are set as grades become available.

What average do you need for UVic Kinesiology?

UVic lists an estimated admission average of minimum 92%, based on required senior courses. UVic notes the actual average may be higher due to competition and limited capacity.

What average do you need for Guelph Bio-Medical Science?

OUInfo lists Guelph Bio-Medical Science at 86 to 92% for the 2027-2028 cycle. Applicants who aren't admitted are automatically considered for Biological Science.

What average do you need for Calgary Neuroscience?

The University of Calgary lists an estimated competitive admission average of mid 90s for Neuroscience.

Is UBC Okanagan easier to get into than UBC Vancouver?

It depends on the program. For the class that entered in 2026, Okanagan Nursing had a mean average of 94, higher than Vancouver Arts at 92.

What is a safety school for Canadian university applications?

Think program, not school. A safe choice is a program where your child's average sits comfortably above the program's own published figure, with no lottery and no supplementary step they're unsure about.

Ready to check your child's list?

TMU Nursing lists an enrolment of 310. Its OUInfo figure, an estimate, already reads 90%+.

The best time to find out whether a backup is really a backup is long before applications open. Our Educators help families build lists like this one, program by program.

Complete our Program Assessment to see where your child stands today. Because our Educators work one-on-one, spots fill up. If you're ready to start, apply to our program waitlist.

A list you can trust is where the rest of the plan starts. Build it early, and maybe we'll see you on campus soon.